What population can the earth support ?

We were about 1.5 billion on planet earth in 1920. By Nov 15, 2022, we had touched 8 billion, an increase of 530%. 

Live science journal reports (click here) the earth population will peak at about 10.8 billion between 2070 and 2080 AD and afterwards global population will decline.

Population distribution and density are also affected by human factors such as geopolitical structures, levels of economic development, and quality-of-life issues that address education, health care, housing, and employment opportunities. (www.nationalgeographic.com)

The factors that influence global population are growth rate, death rate, initial age profile and migration. (www.pewresearch.org). Better healthcare over the past seven decades has seen global population surge. With better technology, better agriculture and crop management, biotech advances in agriculture, the output from limited farm area is increasing. Though the land for agriculture globally has remained stagnant for a year now, the output from this land is increasing and is feeding more mouths.

In 2070, when UN is claiming the population will stagnate, we are still not sure on what basis they have made this assesment. What will happen to the elderly people around at that time ?

It is to complicated to find how the globalpopulation varies from decade to decade. 

5000 BC                     5 m

1000 BC                    50 m

500 BC                    100 m

1 AD                        170 m

600 AD                    200 m

1000 AD                  275 m            

1500 AD                   450 m

1800                         1 bilion

1900                         1.6 billion

1927                         2 billion    (Ten years after First world war over)

1950                         2.6 billion ( Second world war over, UN formed, global peace..)

1960                        3 b

1970                        3.7 b

1980                        4.5 b

1990                        5.3 b

2000                        6.1 b

2010                        7 b

2020                        7.8 b

Nov 15, 2022          8 bilion       Data from 1950 to current year: elaboration of data by United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. World Population Prospects: The 2019 Revision. (Medium-fertility variant).

Projected ..

2030                         8.6 b

2040                         9.4 b

2050                        10.2 b

2060                        11 b

2070                        11.8 b

2080                        12.6 b

2090                        13.4 b

2100                        14.2 b

Three questions that keep bothering humanity for the past twenty years are the following - 

1. What will be the lifestyle of our succeeding generations on planet earth ?

2. Will technology play the saviour or enemy in their lives ?

3. With growth in technology and AI, will they need to exert themselves physically or cognitively then ?

Very interesting questions the whole of humanity need to ponder over the next couple of decades.

George